How KickIQ Works
Most prediction sites hand you a number with no working. KickIQ shows the maths. Every pick is produced by Model V6 — a two-pass, tier-weighted xG engine that reads the last 5 games for a base, the last 20 for context, then grades itself in public after the final whistle: wins and losses.
Model V6 — a two-pass xG engine
How we measure accuracy
The instant a match finishes, KickIQ auto-grades that prediction across every market — match result, winning margin, Over 2.5, BTTS, the exact scoreline and whether the result landed in our top-3 scores — and stores the outcome permanently. Nothing is edited or hidden after the fact. (Heads-up: the exact scoreline is football's hardest market — even elite models hit it ~13% of the time — so we lead with the markets that are reliably right and show the scoreline as a probability, not a promise.)
A hit-rate alone is easy to game. We also publish a Brier score and a calibration table: when we say a side is 70% likely, it should win roughly 70% of the time. A well-calibrated model is the real signal of a trustworthy one — and we show ours openly on the World Cup page once matches begin.
Tracking begins with the first World Cup 2026 fixture on 11 June 2026.
Self-learning + public record
Model V6 runs a writeback learning loop after every settled result: it grades the call, logs statistical outliers (which never retune the model), tracks the Golden Rule and Draw-No-Bet records, and reviews the Golden Rule threshold every 5 results — it can only tighten from 0.80 to 0.90, never loosen.
84 graded · 16 outliers excluded · learner v22
Beat the pro Opta xG model 3× (Spain 0-0 Cape Verde, Scotland 1-0 Haiti, Netherlands 2-2 Japan). 2 irreducible outliers logged (USA 4-1 Paraguay, Sweden 5-1 Tunisia) — excluded from tuning. 4 results fixed by the 20-game modifiers vs V5.
The exact scoreline is football's hardest market — 67% in backtest is near the theoretical ceiling — so we lead with the markets that hold (Golden Rule, DNB) and show the scoreline as the model's single most-likely result.
Responsible gambling
KickIQ provides statistical analysis for entertainment and information only. Predictions are probabilities, never certainties — even a 90% pick loses one time in ten.
- Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose.
- Set a budget and a time limit before you start, and stick to them.
- Never chase losses, and never bet to recover money.
- Gambling is for over-18s only.
If betting stops being fun, free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org and GamblingTherapy.org.